Rune rates Alcaraz the tougher puzzle
One line from practice week in New York cut through the noise: Holger Rune says Carlos Alcaraz is tougher for him to face than Jannik Sinner — even though Sinner is the world No. 1 and the man who keeps hoarding hard-court majors. It’s a blunt admission from a player trying to crash the Sinner–Alcaraz duopoly at the US Open.
“I find it tougher to play Carlos Alcaraz than Jannik Sinner,” Rune said as he tuned up in Queens. “Carlos has a different style that really challenges me. I’m so driven to find a way to beat him because I know that if I can solve the puzzle against him, it will help me against others too.” That’s the crux of it: Alcaraz’s chaos versus Sinner’s control.
Sinner arrives at Flushing Meadows as the defending champion on a 21-match win streak at hard-court Grand Slams — a run that spans the 2024 and 2025 Australian Opens and last year’s US Open. He also just lifted the Wimbledon trophy by beating Alcaraz in the final, adding grass to his hard-court résumé. The Italian is the benchmark right now, and he knows it.
Alcaraz, seeded second and already a five-time major winner, isn’t hiding from that reality. He called Sinner’s hard-court tennis “unbelievable” and “stunning,” and said he wants a US Open final against him. “He has a big target on his back right now,” Alcaraz said, framing Sinner’s form as the standard he’s chasing as he tries to reclaim No. 1.
Rune sits a step behind them in the pecking order, but the 22-year-old Dane has the ambition to match the elite. He’s been at it on the outer courts in New York: long blocks on serve patterns, transition drills, and a lot of work on first-strike forehands. He isn’t favored to win the title — betting markets put Sinner around +105 and Alcaraz near +180 — yet Rune is focused on the matchups that matter, and for him the toughest code to crack wears a headband and hits every shot in the book.
Why Alcaraz over Sinner? Rune’s logic tracks with what players see from the other side of the net. Against Sinner, the patterns are fast and linear: big serve, big return, heavy through the court. You can plan for that. Against Alcaraz, the floor keeps moving. One rally is pace-on-pace, the next is a feathered drop shot followed by a serve-and-volley, then a high-kicking second serve that pushes you off the camera cranes. Rhythm disappears. Choices multiply. Errors creep in because you’re solving a new problem every point.
Rune has lived both versions. He’s had stretches where he hurts Sinner by taking the ball early and accelerating cross-court, especially off the backhand. But Alcaraz tends to lure him into cat-and-mouse exchanges that test footwork, touch, and patience. When Rune chases too hard, short balls leak. When he hangs back, the drop shots come. It’s not just physical — the mental load spikes.
The New York setting makes that chess match even trickier. Ashe Stadium can be breezy at the top and dead calm on the court, and the day-to-night swing changes how the ball jumps. Night sessions add a layer of humidity and, with it, longer rallies. That usually favors the guys who can mix height, spin, and net rushes to reset points. Translation: Alcaraz gets yet another lever to pull. But the faster day sessions, with a drier ball and a lower bounce, give first-strike players like Sinner maximum payoff on serve and return. Rune has to be fluent in both environments.
From inside their mini-era, the Sinner–Alcaraz respect is real, not just for show. They’ve split the last seven majors between them, and both talk openly about how rare it is to push each other this hard while keeping a genuinely friendly relationship off court. “The respect we have and our good relationship off court is what makes it special,” Alcaraz said. Fans can feel it — the matches carry weight without the extra trash talk.
There’s also a rankings wrinkle that adds tension. The math shifts by the round, but Alcaraz can overtake Sinner if he goes deeper — the cleanest scenario is a winner-takes-all final. That storyline hangs over the draw like a neon sign. Both players insist they’re blocking it out, but they also keep referencing each other as the measuring stick. It’s the rivalry setting the pace for everyone else.
Rune is trying to close that gap. His ceiling isn’t in question — he’s a former top-five player with a Masters 1000 title and the kind of shotmaking that takes out giants. Think back to his breakout run in Paris a few seasons ago, when he ripped through a wall of top-10 opponents to win the title. The blueprint is there: take time away, live on the baseline, and lean into the backhand down the line to open space. The challenge in New York is doing that while someone like Alcaraz keeps moving the furniture around mid-rally.
So how does Rune tilt a match with Alcaraz? A few levers matter. First-serve percentage has to sit high enough that he protects his forehand corner and avoids feeding Alcaraz second-serve returns that land on his shoelaces. Depth from the backhand is non-negotiable; if balls land short, Alcaraz turns the court into a front porch and starts knifing in. Rune also needs to call Alcaraz’s bluff at the net — pass early and make him volley from below the tape. And he has to pick his spots for the drop shot rather than mirror Alcaraz out of pride.
Shot tolerance is the hidden stat here. Rune’s best patches are built on holding the rally for one extra ball, then firing. Against Sinner, that timing window can feel narrow because the pace is so pure. Against Alcaraz, the danger is overplaying after a few changes of spin and height. If Rune can stick to his “heavy-then-flat” pattern — roll high cross-court, then knife line — he can open up the forehand finishing lanes without spraying.
There’s also the New York factor you can’t quantify: crowd rhythm. Alcaraz feeds on noise, especially in those late-night Ashe matches where every sprint and slide gets a roar. Rune is no stranger to that energy — he can dial up the swagger — but he’ll want to use the first few games to settle the tempo. Quick holds, early looks on second serve, something to quiet the building. When the match score breathes, so does his shot selection.
For Sinner and Alcaraz, the road is different but equally clear. Sinner leans on the most bankable one-two in the sport right now: first serve locations paired with a backhand that hits lines without blinking. If he keeps service games tidy, he’s the guy forcing opponents to serve under scoreboard pressure. Alcaraz brings spread offense — touch, power, net coverage — and asks you to beat multiple styles in a single match. If the serve percentages hold and the forehand doesn’t leak, he turns best-of-five into a stress test others usually fail.
And Rune? He’s threading the needle. He isn’t the betting favorite and he knows it. But he also understands the assignment. Cracking Alcaraz isn’t just about one win — it’s about unlocking a style that translates up and down the draw. “I have to keep growing and finding ways to beat the top players,” he said. “It’s not easy, but I’m so driven to find a way.”
Day one in Queens always comes with a hundred subplots. This year, the big one is simple: can anyone break the Sinner–Alcaraz grip on the biggest titles? Rune just told us which mountain is steeper for him. Now we see if the work on those outer courts was enough to change the map.
What it means for Sinner, Alcaraz—and the US Open draw
The defending champion owns the form line. The No. 2 seed owns the improvisation. Their rivalry sets the ceiling for the event, and the rest of the field calibrates around it. If they land on opposite halves, every round has that gravitational pull toward a Sunday showdown with the top ranking in play. If the draw puts them together early, one half of the bracket opens up and belief floods in.
Rune’s viewpoint adds a wrinkle for anyone scouting. Players who prefer rhythm might actually match up better with Sinner’s pace if they can absorb it and redirect. Players who like to improvise may find Alcaraz’s variety exhilarating until it isn’t. That’s why Rune’s honesty matters: it maps the trade-offs. Do you want predictable power or unpredictable pressure?
Odds say Sinner. Spotlight says Alcaraz. Rune says the toughest test is the man with the toolbox. In New York, where momentum swings and the night air hangs heavy, that sounds about right.